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The objective of this section is to present the best available data on a wide range of health and related indicators.  This should provide health planners and managers with easy access to data from a variety of sources.

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Population

DefinitionTotal number of people.

Projected population figures are based on various projection models attempting to quantify the expected effects of HIV and AIDS on population growth.
DetailsStatssa web site http://www.statssa.gov.za
Keywords
Indicator Type: -> Demographic -> Population

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Indicator Data
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ECFSGPKZNLPMPNCNWWCZA
Population [Definition]
1996 6 302 5252 633 5047 348 4238 417 0214 929 3682 800 711840 3213 354 8253 956 875[1] 40 583 573
1998 6 519 3002 724 6007 627 6008 726 3005 178 7002 924 400861 4003 481 2004 086 900[2] 42 130 500
1999 6 658 6702 714 6547 807 2738 924 6435 337 2673 003 327875 2223 562 2804 170 971[3] 43 054 306
2000 ASSA2000 change--------4 399 414[4] 45 078 805
2000 ASSA2000 no change6 897 8652 862 0888 765 2629 211 9225 277 4323 054 973955 0103 753 128-[5] 45 078 805
2000 Metropolitan---------[6] 43 324 080
2000 with AIDS6 811 3732 760 5587 780 6318 857 6155 495 6793 004 916869 2483 532 8244 178 598[7] 43 291 441
2000 without AIDS6 847 1622 790 7337 873 2058 986 8575 514 8073 042 637872 8663 566 7774 190 656[8] 43 685 699
2001 6 436 7632 706 7758 837 1789 426 0175 273 6423 122 990822 7273 669 3494 524 335[9] 44 819 778
2001 PRB---------[10] 43 600 000
2001 revised6 488 0132 768 2268 979 9129 557 1654 971 0313 346 3391 084 9043 196 3064 536 899[11] 44 928 795
2001 with AIDS6 978 3872 817 0767 966 7129 070 4585 671 0503 090 946879 6753 604 4724 249 547[12] 44 328 322
2001 without AIDS7 001 2602 834 5198 020 4089 146 2975 683 6053 111 069881 8183 625 9244 255 743[13] 44 560 644
2002 ---------[14] 43 600 000
2002 revised6 511 7962 791 0789 218 5669 659 4855 023 2043 390 3581 094 0283 240 0874 658 510[15] 45 587 112
2002 with AIDS7 132 1412 859 0818 106 1909 212 1235 843 8513 156 272888 3903 659 9024 313 959[16] 45 171 908
2002 without AIDS7 158 8432 878 9938 170 3869 308 5655 857 6223 181 041890 8643 686 0534 321 844[17] 45 454 211
2003 6 503 2012 738 2319 415 2319 761 0325 413 5863 246 729818 8483 791 9844 740 981[18] 46 429 823
2003 WHR---------[19] 45 026 000
2003 revised6 529 9492 810 5159 452 8009 752 2115 070 7173 430 7221 101 9293 280 2604 776 866[20] 46 205 969
2004 7 088 5472 950 6618 847 7409 665 8755 511 9623 244 306899 3493 807 4694 570 696[21] 46 586 607
2004 revised6 542 7952 826 6329 683 1579 835 7105 113 7473 467 5271 108 6583 316 9324 891 930[22] 46 787 088
2005 7 039 3002 953 1009 018 0009 651 1005 635 0003 219 900902 3003 823 9004 645 600[23] 46 888 200
2005 ASSA2000 change--------4 725 994[24] 47 516 461
2005 ASSA2000 no change7 431 0192 945 5379 218 2839 663 3755 687 8483 196 4361 040 3293 961 890-[25] 47 485 369
2005 Metropolitan---------[26] 44 721 605
2005 revised6 550 9762 839 8239 910 8989 910 6365 152 6493 501 0411 114 3853 350 4905 004 196[27] 47 335 094
2006 7 051 5002 958 8009 211 2009 731 8005 670 8003 252 500910 5003 858 2004 745 500[28] 47 390 900
2006 high estimate7 811 1273 340 2719 551 55210 762 1976 500 8353 819 661966 2964 244 0084 691 292[29] 51 692 700
2006 low estimate7 321 9583 087 3898 658 88310 006 9735 965 0063 436 345927 3533 927 7444 447 797[30] 47 781 800
2006 revised6 551 9192 849 49010 134 4149 974 3445 185 0953 530 2061 118 8923 379 9235 112 857[31] 47 837 140
2007 6 906 2002 965 6009 688 10010 014 5005 402 9003 536 3001 102 2003 394 2004 839 800[32] 47 849 800
2007 CS6 527 7462 773 06610 451 70910 259 2305 238 2863 643 4351 058 0573 271 9465 278 591[33] 48 502 066
2007 revised6 568 7542 865 47210 294 86210 045 5945 232 6813 562 1971 123 0373 404 6435 190 084[34] 48 287 324
2008 revised6 579 2452 877 69410 447 24610 105 4375 274 8363 589 9091 125 8813 425 1535 261 922[35] 48 687 323
2010 ASSA2000 change--------4 893 421[36] 47 591 195
2010 ASSA2000 no change7 680 9012 871 2688 956 9139 589 1775 949 7993 191 6181 078 9843 950 663-[37] 47 392 059
2010 Metropolitan---------[38] 44 570 608
2011 high estimate8 639 1803 676 49110 523 50911 940 6697 390 8194 353 7051 027 7784 683 9005 022 832[39] 57 267 000
2011 low estimate7 672 7693 207 4898 982 38010 510 2256 366 3273 659 914953 3294 090 7764 587 026[40] 50 032 600
2011 medium estimate---------[41] 55 683 700
2015 ASSA2000 change---------[42] 47 311 669
2015 ASSA2000 no change---------[43] 46 599 840
2015 Metropolitan---------[44] 43 798 319
2016 high estimate9 437 7173 986 38711 436 69313 062 1328 274 4274 878 7791 084 0125 100 6865 327 516[45] 62 599 000
2016 low estimate7 984 8983 305 0049 260 18410 950 3866 735 8433 864 938977 8924 232 4314 713 375[46] 52 026 900
2020 Metropolitan---------[47] 42 800 799
2021 high estimate10 182 2084 279 66512 332 83914 122 4849 115 0845 387 3351 132 9645 495 8055 605 533[48] 67 667 200
2021 low estimate8 225 6713 379 8769 489 79511 300 2027 036 3484 037 380994 7824 341 4334 806 978[49] 53 614 000
2021 medium estimate---------[50] 63 377 100
2026 high estimate10 862 1444 553 14013 186 52815 103 8969 896 6765 868 6681 172 0735 859 9765 845 631[51] 72 368 000
2026 low estimate8 373 4853 419 3459 622 65811 520 7937 248 2714 161 325999 9104 399 5884 852 308[52] 54 598 900
2031 high estimate11 446 8024 784 26013 915 44315 945 62210 589 7406 297 6531 200 9076 166 7266 048 177[53] 76 414 300
2031 low estimate8 431 7883 418 8429 639 59511 608 6827 377 0724 235 578995 0434 404 7054 853 241[54] 54 965 400
2031 medium estimate---------[55] 67 706 800
EC: Eastern Cape  FS: Free State  GP: Gauteng  KZN: KwaZulu-Natal  LP: Limpopo  MP: Mpumalanga  NC: Northern Cape  NW: North West  WC: Western Cape  ZA: South Africa  

Notes and References

  1. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  2. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    Figures may not add up due to rounding at source.
  3. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    Figures may not add up due to rounding at source.
  4. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  5. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
    This model is able to produce output scenarios for differing levels of change, particularly with respect to HIV risk behaviour and intervention. The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy (ART) * mother to child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic. Data for 2000 represent the starting point for projections from this model, and therefore there is not yet any difference between the change and no change scenarios.
  6. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
  7. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    With additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS. A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS. The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release. StatsSA do not provide projections ‘With AIDS’ by population group, therefore this data is only available ‘Without AIDS’.
  8. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    Without additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS. A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS. The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release. StatsSA do not provide projections ‘With AIDS’ by population group, therefore this data is only available ‘Without AIDS’.
  9. Census 2001: Statistics South Africa. Census 2001. Census in Brief. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa; 2003. http://www.statssa.gov.za/ There is a range of publications providing data from Census 2001, as well as an online database for downloading selected data.
    Local copy: -
    Preliminary independent demographic analyses of this report suggest that the final figures probably reflect: * an underestimate of children under the age of 5 * an overestimate of children aged between 10 and 19 * an underestimate of men relative to women * an underestimate of the white population. Data source also includes other tables with more levels of disaggregation than are shown here.
  10. PRB Pop Data Sheet 2001: 2001 World Population Data Sheet. Washington DC: Population Reference Bureau; May 2001. http://www.prb.org/
    Local copy: -
  11. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  12. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    With additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS.
  13. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    Without additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS.
  14. PRB Pop Data Sheet 2002: 2002 World Population Data Sheet. Washington DC: Population Reference Bureau; August 2002. http://www.prb.org/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/Population/WorldPopulationDS02_Eng.pdf
  15. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  16. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  17. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  18. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  19. World Health Report 2005: World Health Organisation. The World Health Report 2005: Make every mother and child count. Geneva: World Health Organisation; 2005. http://www.who.int/whr/2005/
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/GlobalReports/WorldHealthReport_2005.pdf
  20. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  21. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  22. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  23. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2005 mid-year estimates.
  24. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  25. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  26. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
  27. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  28. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2006 mid-year estimates.
  29. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 2.7 pg 29
  30. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 4.7 pg 169
  31. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  32. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
    2007 mid-year estimates. Figures may not add up due to rounding.
  33. Community Survey 2007: Statistics South Africa. Community Survey 2007. Various reports and online databases. http://www.statssa.gov.za
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/CommSurvey/
  34. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  35. StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
    Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
  36. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  37. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  38. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
  39. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 2.7 pg 29
  40. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
  41. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 3.7 pg 99
  42. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  43. ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions: * no antiretroviral therapy * mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective) * treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001 * a doubling in condom usage over the next five years * a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years. The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
    Local copy: -
  44. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
  45. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 2.7 pg 29
  46. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
  47. Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
    Local copy: -
  48. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 2.7 pg 29
  49. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
  50. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 3.7 pg 99
  51. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 2.7 pg 29
  52. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
  53. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 2.7 pg 29
  54. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
  55. IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed. Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed. Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
    Local copy: -
    Table 3.7 pg 99
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