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Population
| Definition | Total number of people.
Projected population figures are based on various projection models attempting to quantify the expected effects of HIV and AIDS on population growth. |
| Details | Statssa web site http://www.statssa.gov.za |
| Keywords | |
Indicator Type: -> Demographic -> Population [Related Resources]
| EC | FS | GP | KZN | LP | MP | NC | NW | WC | ZA |
| Population [Definition] |
| 1996 | 6 302 525 | 2 633 504 | 7 348 423 | 8 417 021 | 4 929 368 | 2 800 711 | 840 321 | 3 354 825 | 3 956 875 | [1] 40 583 573 |
| 1998 | 6 519 300 | 2 724 600 | 7 627 600 | 8 726 300 | 5 178 700 | 2 924 400 | 861 400 | 3 481 200 | 4 086 900 | [2] 42 130 500 |
| 1999 | 6 658 670 | 2 714 654 | 7 807 273 | 8 924 643 | 5 337 267 | 3 003 327 | 875 222 | 3 562 280 | 4 170 971 | [3] 43 054 306 |
| 2000 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 399 414 | [4] 45 078 805 |
| 2000 ASSA2000 no change | 6 897 865 | 2 862 088 | 8 765 262 | 9 211 922 | 5 277 432 | 3 054 973 | 955 010 | 3 753 128 | - | [5] 45 078 805 |
| 2000 Metropolitan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [6] 43 324 080 |
| 2000 with AIDS | 6 811 373 | 2 760 558 | 7 780 631 | 8 857 615 | 5 495 679 | 3 004 916 | 869 248 | 3 532 824 | 4 178 598 | [7] 43 291 441 |
| 2000 without AIDS | 6 847 162 | 2 790 733 | 7 873 205 | 8 986 857 | 5 514 807 | 3 042 637 | 872 866 | 3 566 777 | 4 190 656 | [8] 43 685 699 |
| 2001 | 6 436 763 | 2 706 775 | 8 837 178 | 9 426 017 | 5 273 642 | 3 122 990 | 822 727 | 3 669 349 | 4 524 335 | [9] 44 819 778 |
| 2001 PRB | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] 43 600 000 |
| 2001 revised | 6 488 013 | 2 768 226 | 8 979 912 | 9 557 165 | 4 971 031 | 3 346 339 | 1 084 904 | 3 196 306 | 4 536 899 | [11] 44 928 795 |
| 2001 with AIDS | 6 978 387 | 2 817 076 | 7 966 712 | 9 070 458 | 5 671 050 | 3 090 946 | 879 675 | 3 604 472 | 4 249 547 | [12] 44 328 322 |
| 2001 without AIDS | 7 001 260 | 2 834 519 | 8 020 408 | 9 146 297 | 5 683 605 | 3 111 069 | 881 818 | 3 625 924 | 4 255 743 | [13] 44 560 644 |
| 2002 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [14] 43 600 000 |
| 2002 revised | 6 511 796 | 2 791 078 | 9 218 566 | 9 659 485 | 5 023 204 | 3 390 358 | 1 094 028 | 3 240 087 | 4 658 510 | [15] 45 587 112 |
| 2002 with AIDS | 7 132 141 | 2 859 081 | 8 106 190 | 9 212 123 | 5 843 851 | 3 156 272 | 888 390 | 3 659 902 | 4 313 959 | [16] 45 171 908 |
| 2002 without AIDS | 7 158 843 | 2 878 993 | 8 170 386 | 9 308 565 | 5 857 622 | 3 181 041 | 890 864 | 3 686 053 | 4 321 844 | [17] 45 454 211 |
| 2003 | 6 503 201 | 2 738 231 | 9 415 231 | 9 761 032 | 5 413 586 | 3 246 729 | 818 848 | 3 791 984 | 4 740 981 | [18] 46 429 823 |
| 2003 WHR | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [19] 45 026 000 |
| 2003 revised | 6 529 949 | 2 810 515 | 9 452 800 | 9 752 211 | 5 070 717 | 3 430 722 | 1 101 929 | 3 280 260 | 4 776 866 | [20] 46 205 969 |
| 2004 | 7 088 547 | 2 950 661 | 8 847 740 | 9 665 875 | 5 511 962 | 3 244 306 | 899 349 | 3 807 469 | 4 570 696 | [21] 46 586 607 |
| 2004 revised | 6 542 795 | 2 826 632 | 9 683 157 | 9 835 710 | 5 113 747 | 3 467 527 | 1 108 658 | 3 316 932 | 4 891 930 | [22] 46 787 088 |
| 2005 | 7 039 300 | 2 953 100 | 9 018 000 | 9 651 100 | 5 635 000 | 3 219 900 | 902 300 | 3 823 900 | 4 645 600 | [23] 46 888 200 |
| 2005 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 725 994 | [24] 47 516 461 |
| 2005 ASSA2000 no change | 7 431 019 | 2 945 537 | 9 218 283 | 9 663 375 | 5 687 848 | 3 196 436 | 1 040 329 | 3 961 890 | - | [25] 47 485 369 |
| 2005 Metropolitan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [26] 44 721 605 |
| 2005 revised | 6 550 976 | 2 839 823 | 9 910 898 | 9 910 636 | 5 152 649 | 3 501 041 | 1 114 385 | 3 350 490 | 5 004 196 | [27] 47 335 094 |
| 2006 | 7 051 500 | 2 958 800 | 9 211 200 | 9 731 800 | 5 670 800 | 3 252 500 | 910 500 | 3 858 200 | 4 745 500 | [28] 47 390 900 |
| 2006 high estimate | 7 811 127 | 3 340 271 | 9 551 552 | 10 762 197 | 6 500 835 | 3 819 661 | 966 296 | 4 244 008 | 4 691 292 | [29] 51 692 700 |
| 2006 low estimate | 7 321 958 | 3 087 389 | 8 658 883 | 10 006 973 | 5 965 006 | 3 436 345 | 927 353 | 3 927 744 | 4 447 797 | [30] 47 781 800 |
| 2006 revised | 6 551 919 | 2 849 490 | 10 134 414 | 9 974 344 | 5 185 095 | 3 530 206 | 1 118 892 | 3 379 923 | 5 112 857 | [31] 47 837 140 |
| 2007 | 6 906 200 | 2 965 600 | 9 688 100 | 10 014 500 | 5 402 900 | 3 536 300 | 1 102 200 | 3 394 200 | 4 839 800 | [32] 47 849 800 |
| 2007 CS | 6 527 746 | 2 773 066 | 10 451 709 | 10 259 230 | 5 238 286 | 3 643 435 | 1 058 057 | 3 271 946 | 5 278 591 | [33] 48 502 066 |
| 2007 revised | 6 568 754 | 2 865 472 | 10 294 862 | 10 045 594 | 5 232 681 | 3 562 197 | 1 123 037 | 3 404 643 | 5 190 084 | [34] 48 287 324 |
| 2008 revised | 6 579 245 | 2 877 694 | 10 447 246 | 10 105 437 | 5 274 836 | 3 589 909 | 1 125 881 | 3 425 153 | 5 261 922 | [35] 48 687 323 |
| 2010 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 893 421 | [36] 47 591 195 |
| 2010 ASSA2000 no change | 7 680 901 | 2 871 268 | 8 956 913 | 9 589 177 | 5 949 799 | 3 191 618 | 1 078 984 | 3 950 663 | - | [37] 47 392 059 |
| 2010 Metropolitan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [38] 44 570 608 |
| 2011 high estimate | 8 639 180 | 3 676 491 | 10 523 509 | 11 940 669 | 7 390 819 | 4 353 705 | 1 027 778 | 4 683 900 | 5 022 832 | [39] 57 267 000 |
| 2011 low estimate | 7 672 769 | 3 207 489 | 8 982 380 | 10 510 225 | 6 366 327 | 3 659 914 | 953 329 | 4 090 776 | 4 587 026 | [40] 50 032 600 |
| 2011 medium estimate | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [41] 55 683 700 |
| 2015 ASSA2000 change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [42] 47 311 669 |
| 2015 ASSA2000 no change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [43] 46 599 840 |
| 2015 Metropolitan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [44] 43 798 319 |
| 2016 high estimate | 9 437 717 | 3 986 387 | 11 436 693 | 13 062 132 | 8 274 427 | 4 878 779 | 1 084 012 | 5 100 686 | 5 327 516 | [45] 62 599 000 |
| 2016 low estimate | 7 984 898 | 3 305 004 | 9 260 184 | 10 950 386 | 6 735 843 | 3 864 938 | 977 892 | 4 232 431 | 4 713 375 | [46] 52 026 900 |
| 2020 Metropolitan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [47] 42 800 799 |
| 2021 high estimate | 10 182 208 | 4 279 665 | 12 332 839 | 14 122 484 | 9 115 084 | 5 387 335 | 1 132 964 | 5 495 805 | 5 605 533 | [48] 67 667 200 |
| 2021 low estimate | 8 225 671 | 3 379 876 | 9 489 795 | 11 300 202 | 7 036 348 | 4 037 380 | 994 782 | 4 341 433 | 4 806 978 | [49] 53 614 000 |
| 2021 medium estimate | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [50] 63 377 100 |
| 2026 high estimate | 10 862 144 | 4 553 140 | 13 186 528 | 15 103 896 | 9 896 676 | 5 868 668 | 1 172 073 | 5 859 976 | 5 845 631 | [51] 72 368 000 |
| 2026 low estimate | 8 373 485 | 3 419 345 | 9 622 658 | 11 520 793 | 7 248 271 | 4 161 325 | 999 910 | 4 399 588 | 4 852 308 | [52] 54 598 900 |
| 2031 high estimate | 11 446 802 | 4 784 260 | 13 915 443 | 15 945 622 | 10 589 740 | 6 297 653 | 1 200 907 | 6 166 726 | 6 048 177 | [53] 76 414 300 |
| 2031 low estimate | 8 431 788 | 3 418 842 | 9 639 595 | 11 608 682 | 7 377 072 | 4 235 578 | 995 043 | 4 404 705 | 4 853 241 | [54] 54 965 400 |
| 2031 medium estimate | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | [55] 67 706 800 |
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| EC: Eastern Cape FS: Free State GP: Gauteng KZN: KwaZulu-Natal LP: Limpopo MP: Mpumalanga NC: Northern Cape NW: North West WC: Western Cape ZA: South Africa |
Notes and References
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ Figures may not add up due to rounding at source.
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ Figures may not add up due to rounding at source.
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: - This model is able to produce output scenarios for differing levels of change, particularly with respect to HIV risk behaviour and intervention.
The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy (ART)
* mother to child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Data for 2000 represent the starting point for projections from this model, and therefore there is not yet any difference between the change and no change scenarios.
- Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
Local copy: -
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ With additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS.
A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS. The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release. StatsSA do not provide projections ‘With AIDS’ by population group, therefore this data is only available ‘Without AIDS’.
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ Without additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS.
A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS. The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release. StatsSA do not provide projections ‘With AIDS’ by population group, therefore this data is only available ‘Without AIDS’.
- Census 2001: Statistics South Africa. Census 2001. Census in Brief. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa; 2003. http://www.statssa.gov.za/ There is a range of publications providing data from Census 2001, as well as an online database for downloading selected data.
Local copy: - Preliminary independent demographic analyses of this report suggest that the final figures probably reflect:
* an underestimate of children under the age of 5
* an overestimate of children aged between 10 and 19
* an underestimate of men relative to women
* an underestimate of the white population. Data source also includes other tables with more levels of disaggregation than are shown here.
- PRB Pop Data Sheet 2001: 2001 World Population Data Sheet. Washington DC: Population Reference Bureau; May 2001. http://www.prb.org/
Local copy: -
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ With additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS.
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ Without additional deaths due to HIV/AIDS.
- PRB Pop Data Sheet 2002: 2002 World Population Data Sheet. Washington DC: Population Reference Bureau; August 2002. http://www.prb.org/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/Population/WorldPopulationDS02_Eng.pdf
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- World Health Report 2005: World Health Organisation. The World Health Report 2005: Make every mother and child count. Geneva: World Health Organisation; 2005. http://www.who.int/whr/2005/
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/GlobalReports/WorldHealthReport_2005.pdf
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ 2005 mid-year estimates.
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
Local copy: -
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ 2006 mid-year estimates.
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 2.7 pg 29
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 4.7 pg 169
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/ 2007 mid-year estimates. Figures may not add up due to rounding.
- Community Survey 2007: Statistics South Africa. Community Survey 2007. Various reports and online databases. http://www.statssa.gov.za
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/CommSurvey/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- StatsSA Mid-year Estimates: Statistics South Africa: Statistical release P0302 Mid-year estimates. (various years) http://www.statssa.gov.za/ A new feature of the 2000 mid year estimates was that two population estimates were provided, one taking into account the estimated additional deaths that might have occurred due to HIV/AIDS (With AIDS) and one that does not attempt to model the impact of AIDS (Without AIDS). The assumptions that underpinned these estimates are outlined in the relevant P0302 Statistical release.
Local copy: http://www.hst.org.za/indicators/StatsSA/
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 2.7 pg 29
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 3.7 pg 99
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- ASSA 2000: Actuarial Projection of the Epidemic: Summary Statistics. AIDS Committee of Actuarial Society of South Africa. Downloaded 14/10/2002. http://www.actuarialsociety.co.za/aids/ The change scenario is included not so much because this is a likely scenario but in order to break away from the tradition of only showing what is expected to happen if nothing is done. It comprises the following assumptions:
* no antiretroviral therapy
* mother-to-child transmission intervention (phased in from 40% of births in the year starting 1 July 2001 to 90% in five years time, and assumed to 50% effective)
* treatment of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) such that these are reduced by 15% phased in over the five years starting 1 July 2001
* a doubling in condom usage over the next five years
* a decrease in the number of new sexual partners by 15% over the next five years.
The provincial projection results are based on the assumption of no-change for all provinces except the Western Cape. In the case of the Western Cape a change scenario specific to that province has been incorporated to allow for the fact that the province has been intervening to prevent the spread of the epidemic.
Local copy: -
- Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 2.7 pg 29
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: -
- Metropolitan 2001: Kramer S. Mortality & Population: The Doyle Model. Metropolitan. 2001. (PowerPoint presentation and spreadsheet) skramer@metropolitan.co.za
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 2.7 pg 29
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 3.7 pg 99
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 2.7 pg 29
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 2.7 pg 29
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: -
- IFR Projections 1999: Haldenwang BB. High, Medium and Low Projections of the South African Population, 1996-2031. Cape Town: Institute for Futures Research; 1999. http://www.ifr.sun.ac.za/ High population projections: The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS is not incorporated, therefore life expectancy at birth increases throughout the projection period; fertility rates decline steadily; and a high degree of in-migration (200 000 per annum) is assumed.
Medium population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 2011 onwards; fertility rates in black/African and coloured women decline more rapidly than in the high projections; and a medium degree of in-migration (150 000 per annum) is assumed.
Low population projections: The impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is incorporated from 1996 onwards; fertility rates are similar to those of the medium projections; and a low degree of in-migration (100 000 per annum) is assumed.
Local copy: - Table 3.7 pg 99
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