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The impact of HIV/AIDS on provinces and LSM groups in South Africa
BMR
2003-02-06

AIDS-related deaths among the adult population increased from about 9% of adult deaths in 1995/1996 to about 40% of adult deaths in 2000/2001. This is one of the alarming findings of a study conducted by Prof Carel van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research (BMR)* of the University of South Africa (Unisa) and published in a report entitled The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on provinces and Living Standards Measure (LSM) groups in South Africa. The study under discussion investigates the current and future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on South Africa as a whole, the different provinces and the different Living Standards Measure (LSM) groups. Whereas the total South African population would have numbered about 61 million in the absence of HIV/AIDS by 2015, the total population is now expected to grow to only about 49 million by 2015. With regards to the provinces, it should be noted that HIV/AIDS will have a differential demographic impact on the various provinces. KwaZulu-Natal, with the highest provincial HIV prevalence, is expected to experience the highest number of annual AIDS-related deaths, followed by the two provinces with the largest populations after KwaZulu-Natal, namely Gauteng and the Eastern Cape. The impact of HIV/AIDS will be particularly high in the age groups between 15 and 49 years. In KwaZulu-Natal about 350 000 people and in Gauteng about 500 000 people in the 15 to 49 year age cohorts will have died due to AIDS-related diseases by 2006. The most significant declines in life expectancy at birth that may be attributed to HIV/AIDS will occur in KwaZulu-Natal (life expectancy of 33 by 2010) and Mpumalanga (life expectancy of 34 by 2010). The study also looks at the impact of HIV/AIDS on the different LSM groups. In 2001 about 19% of LSM 1 and about 18% of LSM 2 and LSM 3 members were HIV positive. However, lower HIV rates (5% for LSM 9 and 2,5% for LSM 10) were found in the higher LSMs in 2001. It was also evident that the bulk of HIV-positive people in the various LSMs in 2001 were still in the early phases of the HIV/AIDS lifecycle. By 2008 HIV prevalence rates in the different LSMs are anticipated to grow by 25% to 30% on average, and the bulk of the HIV-positive population in the various LSMs will be in the later phases of the HIV/AIDS lifecycle. THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON PROVINCES AND LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE (LSM) GROUPS IN SOUTH AFRICA (Research Report no 310) was compiled by Prof Carel van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research (BMR). The report of 103 pages is available from the BMR, PO Box 392, UNISA, 0003. *The Bureau of Market Research was founded by UNISA in 1960. Its function is to conduct marketing and socio-economic research and to provide training in research methodology. Editorial contact and Professional Enquiries: Mr CJ van Aardt, Tel (012) 429-2940, Fax (012) 429-3170 E-mail vaardcj@unisa.ac.za Other Enquiries: Mrs M Lamb Tel (012) 429-3070 Fax (012) 429-3170 E-mail: lambm@unisa.ac.za

The toll of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa continues to mount as is evident from the increasing numbers of HIV-positive people and a rapid increase in the number of AIDS-related deaths. AIDS-related deaths among the adult population increased from about 9% of adult deaths in 1995/1996 to about 40% of adult deaths in 2000/2001. 

This is one of the alarming findings of a study conducted by Prof Carel van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research (BMR)* of the University of South Africa (Unisa) and published in a report entitled The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on provinces and Living Standards Measure (LSM) groups in South Africa. 

The study under discussion investigates the current and future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on South Africa as a whole, the different provinces and the different Living Standards Measure (LSM) groups. On a national level HIV/AIDS will slash the life expectancies of South Africans dramatically and will impact on fertility rates in South Africa as well as on the size and structure of the South African population, the composition of labour supply in South Africa, the rate of natural increase in the population and future population size outcomes. Whereas the total South African population would have numbered about 61 million in the absence of HIV/AIDS by 2015, the total population is now expected to grow to only about 49 million by 2015.

With regards to the provinces, it should be noted that HIV/AIDS will have a differential demographic impact on the various provinces. KwaZulu-Natal, with the highest provincial HIV prevalence, is expected to experience the highest number of annual AIDS-related deaths, followed by the two provinces with the largest populations after KwaZulu-Natal, namely Gauteng and the Eastern Cape. The impact of HIV/AIDS will be particularly high in the age groups between 15 and 49 years. In KwaZulu-Natal about 350 000 people and in Gauteng about 500 000 people in the 15 to 49 year age cohorts will have died due to AIDS-related diseases by 2006.

Life expectancies at birth will also be differentially affected by HIV/AIDS in the different provinces. The most significant declines in life expectancy at birth that may be attributed to HIV/AIDS will occur in KwaZulu-Natal (life expectancy of 33 by 2010) and Mpumalanga (life expectancy of 34 by 2010).

The study also looks at the impact of HIV/AIDS on the different LSM groups. In 2001 about 19% of LSM 1 and about 18% of LSM 2 and LSM 3 members were HIV positive. However, lower HIV rates (5% for LSM 9 and 2,5% for LSM 10) were found in the higher LSMs in 2001. It was also evident that the bulk of HIV-positive people in the various LSMs in 2001 were still in the early phases of the HIV/AIDS lifecycle. By 2008 HIV prevalence rates in the different LSMs are anticipated to grow by 25% to 30% on average, and the bulk of the HIV-positive population in the various LSMs will be in the later phases of the HIV/AIDS lifecycle.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON PROVINCES AND LIVING STANDARDS MEASURE (LSM) GROUPS IN SOUTH AFRICA (Research Report no 310) was compiled by Prof Carel van Aardt of the Bureau of Market Research (BMR). The report of 103 pages is available from the BMR, PO Box 392, UNISA, 0003. (Source: BMR press release on www. biz-community.com, 19 Jan 2003)

*The Bureau of Market Research was founded by UNISA in 1960. Its function is to conduct marketing and socio-economic research and to provide training in research methodology.

Editorial contact: Professional Enquiries:
Mr CJ van Aardt, Tel (012) 429-2940, Fax (012) 429-3170
E-mail vaardcj@unisa.ac.za 

Other Enquiries:
Mrs M Lamb Tel (012) 429-3070 Fax (012) 429-3170
E-mail: lambm@unisa.ac.za 

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