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SA lifespan down to 51
News24.com
2007-01-12

Johannesburg - Life expectancy in South Africa is down to 51, after being 64 years in 1990.

South Africa has the world's second heaviest caseload of HIV/AIDS, behind India, and the highest proportion of population infected with the disease.

The impact of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy is highlighted in a recent survey by the Medical Research Council and Actuarial Society of South Africa.

The survey, based on epidemiological and demographic data, found that life expectancy in 2006 was estimated to be 49 years for males and 53 years for females or an average of 51.

Without anti-retroviral medicines (ARV's) that figure could drop to 48 years by 2015.

Senior MRC researcher Debbie Bradshaw said life expectancy in South Africa was on average 64 years in 1990 and had now dropped by 13 years to 51.

A mathematical AIDS model was used to determine how much the disease contributed to the decline in population figures.

Antiretroviral plan 
South Africa is second to India as the country with the highest total number of HIV-infected people in the world.

Around 5.5 million people in a population of 47 million are living with HIV or full-blown AIDS.

According to government figures for September 2006, 213 000 infected people now benefit from a government-funded antiretroviral plan, and 11 000 more join each month.

Based on a scenario developed by researchers that by 2015, 50% of those needing treatment will be receiving it, the impact of AIDS deaths could slow down in the coming years.

With the programme, the difference is expected to reduce below 16 years, giving a life expectancy of 50 years, according to the survey. 

The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National and Provincial Indicators for 2006:
http://www.mrc.ac.za/bod/DemographicImpactHIVIndicators.pdf

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