| Summary |
Fertility in South Africa has been falling for almost four decades. The 2001 South Africa Census
offers the opportunity to reflect on this decline, and to assess the trajectory and patterns of
fertility in the country, among its population groups and in its provinces.
Analysis of the data in the 2001 census shows that fertility among all four main population
groups continues to fall, and that the national level of fertility is now below three children per
woman. The rate of decline indicated by the estimated levels of fertility is a continuation of the
long trend of gradually declining fertility. The 2001 census was the second conducted in a postapartheid
South Africa. The first, which was conducted in 1996, is regarded as the most reliable
and accurate enumeration of the South African population since that in 1970. The comparison of
fertility levels and trends estimated from these two post-apartheid censuses provides valuable
checks and comparisons that further enhance our understanding of fertility dynamics in the
country. |
| More Details |
Nationally, fertility has fallen by 0.4 of a child per woman over a five year period, a decline
of 12.1 per cent. The rate of decline has been fastest among Indian/Asian women, and slowest
among Coloured women.
The level of, and the rate of change in, provincial fertility reflects both the composition of
each province by population group as well as differences in the level of urbanisation. Fertility is
lowest in the Western Cape, Northern Cape, Gauteng and the Free State. These four provinces
also showed the lowest fertility levels in the 1996 census.
A particularly large decline in fertility is apparent in the data for the Eastern Cape. Whether
this fall is real or more probably a result of errors in the data collected in that province is unknown at this stage. Further research, based on household survey data, together with the
Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) that is currently in the field, may be able to shed light on
this question. The derivation of robust and reliable fertility rates is a worthwhile endeavour in its own
right and represents the major portion of the present work, but to do so requires that this report
discusses the quality of the data collected in the 2001 census at some length.
We identify (and correct for) several significant anomalies in the data collected in the 2001
census. The two errors that give rise to the greatest concern are, first, the apparent inability of the
census to capture accurately all births that occurred in the preceding twelve months. As with the
1996 census data, only about half of the 1.1 million births we estimate to have occurred in the
country over the year before the 2001 census were actually enumerated. Errors of this sort are
common, and well documented, in all developing country settings. Nonetheless, strenuous efforts
should be made to improve the quality of recent fertility data collected in future censuses.
Second, the data on the number of children born to women of reproductive age are
seriously deficient. All indications are that this was a result of inadequate (or incorrect) training of
enumerators. This matter can, and must, be addressed before the next census if these data are to
be useful. While a method is presented here that allows estimates of womens lifetime fertility to
be calculated, the ramifications of this flaw in the data extend beyond the analysis and
determination of fertility levels and trends. Most importantly, the data on the proportion of
children born that are still alive indicates that (most probably) women interpreted the question on
children ever born as asking about children still alive. This compromises the estimation of child
mortality levels from the census data, since the estimation procedures rely heavily on those
proportions. Further investigation of these data is outside the scope of this report, but is covered
in a second monograph prepared by the Centre for Actuarial Research for Statistics South Africa
(Dorrington, Moultrie and Timus 2004). |
| Publication Webpage |
http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/care/Monographs/Monographs/Mono12.pdf |
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| Keywords |
This Item is associated with the Following
Keywords: pregnancy. |
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